LIVE · TRADING NOW · POLYMARKET

Not rules.
Reasoning.

An AI that reads sports, news, and crypto in real time. Applies base rates. Refuses coin-flip bets. Fires only when conviction is real. Then sizes with Kelly — disciplined, not degen.

Start free trial → See it think
edgebot.online — live stats
All-time realized P&L
$-58.40
updated every trade · powered by one VPS · Sonnet 4.6
Closed trades
184
Win rate
55%
Best trade
+$23.79
Sports covered
5
Sonnet 4.6 · per-sport playbooks
ESPN 30s scoreboard polling
Conviction gate · no coin-flips
Your wallet · your keys · always
// AI-first, not rule-first

Every trade reasoned, not triggered.

Most trading bots run simple rules: "if price drops 5%, buy." PolyBot doesn't. It reads game state, news, market mispricing — then writes out its causal reasoning before deciding.

If the model isn't confident, the conviction gate blocks the trade. No forced signals. No "might as well try it" losses. Just disciplined entries where the edge is real.

▸ See real trades it took this week

LIVE · score-entry · tennis/atp
sonnet-4.6
market: BMW Open — Shapovalov vs Marozsan
score: 6-6 Set 1 (tiebreak)
mkt_price: 0.54
// Sonnet reasoning:
"Tiebreak at 6-6 decides Set 1. If Shapovalov takes it, he's positioned with momentum. Base rate for tiebreak winner → match winner ≈ 72%. Market priced at 54% hasn't absorbed this. Clear mispricing in a high-information moment."
true_p: 0.76
edge: +0.22
kelly_frac: 0.12 (quarter)
conviction_gate: PASS (0.76 > 0.65)
▸ ATTACK: buy 7.24 shares @ 0.62 · TP 0.855
Edge stack

Five sports. Live news. One brain.

Every signal goes through the same disciplined pipeline: context → reasoning → conviction gate → edge gate → Kelly sizing → execution. Same rigor, whether it's an NBA tiebreak or a BTC headline.

🎾

Live tennis pipeline

ATP & WTA matches polled every 30s via ESPN. Sonnet evaluates set-by-set, fires on decisive moments (tiebreaks, broken serves, deciding sets).

SHIPPED APR 16
🏀

NBA play-by-play

Margin-threshold crossings, lead changes, Q4 starts. Each triggers Sonnet re-evaluation with NBA base rates and live team form.

🏒

NHL goals & periods

Official NHL play-by-play for goals, penalties, period starts. Fires Sonnet score-entry the moment the game state meaningfully shifts.

⚽

Soccer keyEvents

EPL, La Liga, Serie A, UCL, Europa. Goals, red cards, halftime — all surface through ESPN keyEvents and get Sonnet-priced vs Polymarket.

⚾

MLB live scoreboard

Inning-by-inning score tracking. Threshold-gated to ignore noise (single-run swings) and only fire on meaningful game-state moves.

📰

News reaction brain

Crypto + geopolitics headlines in sub-second. Sonnet evaluates: is this market-moving, or already priced? Verdict-cached to avoid re-paying for recycled news.

📈

Team form injection

ESPN standings auto-injected: W-L records, point streaks, differentials. Sonnet sees "Warriors 43-29 vs Clippers 52-29", not just team names.

🎯

Conviction gate

Sonnet's true-probability must exceed 0.65 to fire. Coin-flip entries (where the model admits uncertainty) get blocked. The single biggest edge in this system.

KILLS COIN-FLIPS
⚖️

Quarter-Kelly sizing

Each bet sized by edge × win probability, dampened to ¼ Kelly. Bounded by balance. Never over-bets, never tilts on a losing streak.

🧭

Sports-aware stops

No dumb price-based stops on live sports (those fire at the trough). Exits only via Sonnet SCORE-REEVAL on real thesis breaks, TP, or market resolution.

APR 16 FIX
🛡️

Fortress reconciler

Ghost-position protection, activity-API reconciliation, 3-read wallet-sync confirmation, closed-market cleanup. Bug patterns from 280+ live trades, patched.

🔐

Your wallet, always

Your Polymarket proxy wallet stays yours. We encrypt the trading key at rest — never log balances, never transfer out. Withdraw whenever, no permission required.

Real trades · this week

Receipts over promises.

Actual positions the bot took. Actual Sonnet reasoning. Actual outcomes. No screenshots from "last month" — this is what the pipeline shipped live.

🏀 NBA PLAY-IN Apr 16 · 04:11 UTC
Warriors vs Clippers
"Warriors leading by 9 Q4. Base rate for Q4 lead ≥ 8: trailing team wins ~14-17%. Market priced at 22%. true_p 0.83. Edge 61c."
Partial-TP fired 4× between 0.25 → 0.27 as market caught up. Full exit in 20 minutes.
realized +$11.16
🎾 WTA ROUEN Apr 16 · 13:09 UTC
Baptiste vs Shymanovich
"Deciding Set 3 at 0-3. Baptiste faces break-break hole. Base rate for match win from here: ~13%. Market priced 50%. Massive mispricing."
Bought NO-Baptiste at 0.67. Shymanovich closed out 6-3 Set 3. Resolved to $1.00.
realized +$4.63
🎾 ATP BMW Apr 16 · 15:08 UTC
Shapovalov vs Marozsan
"Tiebreak 6-6 Set 1. Winner gets ~72% match. Market at 54%, 22c edge. Score decisive within minutes."
Entry 0.62 · TP hit 0.855 in 21 minutes · clean exit before Set 2 started.
realized +$1.72
Onboarding

From signup to first trade in 4 steps.

STEP 01

Start on Telegram

Hit /start in the Telegram bot. Accept terms. Get a secure onboarding link.

STEP 02

Connect wallet

Add your Polymarket proxy wallet via the encrypted onboarding page. Funds stay in your custody.

STEP 03

Configure limits

Set max spend per trade, daily loss limit, price range. Pay with card or crypto.

STEP 04

Let it trade

Bot runs 24/7. Telegram alerts on every entry/exit. Pause or withdraw anytime.

FAQ

Questions worth asking.

Real answers to the things skeptical traders ask before signing up. No marketing fluff.

How do I know you won't lose my money to bugs?
You don't — and I won't pretend otherwise. Bots can have bugs; prediction markets are risky. What I can show: PolyBot ships with 280+ live trades of battle-testing, activity-API reconciliation, ghost-position protection, 3-read wallet-sync confirmation, and sports-aware stops (no dumb price-SL during a live game). Every production bug I've hit has been patched with a public commit. The code is alive — I work on it daily. Use the free trial to verify before paying.
Where does my money sit? Can you steal it?
Your funds stay in your own Polymarket proxy wallet. PolyBot needs your private key to place trades, but it's encrypted at rest and never logged. Withdraw back to a personal wallet any time directly from Polymarket — no permission from us needed. If anything feels off, withdraw immediately and rotate your wallet. Custody never leaves you.
What's the actual edge? Why would this work?
Three structural edges: (1) Reaction speed — the bot sees sports score changes via ESPN polling 30s faster than Polymarket's WS push; on a tiebreak, that gap is enough to enter before the crowd reprices. (2) Base rate discipline — retail traders click emotionally; Sonnet applies actual base rates (e.g., "0-3 in deciding tennis set = 13% comeback"). (3) Conviction gate — when Sonnet admits "I don't know," the bot doesn't trade. Retail clickers fire every signal. We only fire strong ones.
What happens if Polymarket goes down?
The bot retries failed orders, reconciles missing trades via the activity API, and pauses new entries if the CLOB returns errors for several minutes. Open positions stay safe — your shares don't disappear if the bot can't reach the exchange. When Polymarket recovers, the bot resumes automatically. We don't guarantee uptime (no honest trading product can).
How much money can I realistically make?
Honest answer based on current live performance: a $100-200 bankroll can expect roughly break-even to +$50/month in slow months, and up to +$100-200/month in active sports weeks (NBA playoffs, UCL, Grand Slams). Occasional bad days take -$5 to -$15 single-session. Anyone promising guaranteed returns is lying. The edge is real but variance is too. Use the free trial to verify before paying.
Why subscription instead of profit share?
Three reasons: (1) flat pricing means I make the same whether you have a great month or a rough one — no incentive to push risky trades. (2) Math is simple: you pay $50, net your trading results. (3) Legitimate SaaS runs on flat subscriptions; performance fees are a red flag in this space.
How do I cancel?
Send /pause in Telegram to stop new trades immediately. Send /cancel to stop subscription renewal — you keep access until the end of your current paid period. Withdraw your funds from Polymarket whenever you want; PolyBot can't and won't stop you.
Is this legal where I live?
Polymarket is restricted in some countries (US residents, a few others). PolyBot is just software — you're responsible for verifying prediction market trading is legal where you live before signing up. We don't ask for your location and don't enforce geographic restrictions; that's on you. See our Terms of Service for the full disclaimer.
Pricing

One plan. No tiers.

Start with a free 3-day trial — no card required. Pay monthly, cancel anytime.

Full access
PolyBot · Monthly
$50/month
Everything unlocked. No upsells. No hidden fees.
  • 3-day free trial · no card required
  • Live multi-sport pipeline (NBA / NHL / MLB / Soccer / Tennis)
  • Sonnet 4.6 reasoning · per-sport playbooks
  • Conviction gate · blocks coin-flip bets
  • Quarter-Kelly sizing · variance-dampened
  • ESPN standings & injury auto-injection
  • Real-time Telegram alerts on every trade
  • Fortress reconciler · ghost-position proof
  • Your wallet, your keys, withdraw anytime
  • Cancel anytime — no commitment
Start 3-day free trial →
▸ RISK WARNING: PolyBot is a software tool — not financial advice. Trading prediction markets carries real risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. You may lose your entire deposit. Only fund with capital you can afford to lose. Prediction market trading is restricted in some jurisdictions (including US); verifying legality where you live is your responsibility. By using PolyBot you agree to our Terms of Service and Privacy Policy.